How to decide whether to lower your price, or make any big call

"Should we lower our price?" sounds like a decision, but it only invites a yes or no. From the customer's side, the answer is always yes, all the way down to free. A better move is to turn the question into a hypothesis you can test. That's hypothesis-driven decision making, and the builder below walks you through it with your own situation.

How it works

Six steps, in this order:

1. Question. Write down the decision you're stuck on, the way you'd say it out loud.
2. Surface the assumptions. List every belief behind the question without filtering. Then tag each one: foundational (everything rests on it), dependent (only true if another is), needs testing, or known (there is evidence).
3. Build the hypothesis. Because we believe [your foundational and known assumptions], when [this happens], we think [this will happen], because [this link].
4. Explore the negative space. Run a pre-mortem. It's six months later and you got it wrong. What early signs would have told you?
5. Plan the tests. One cheap, quick check for each shaky assumption and each warning sign, cheapest first.
6. Share the card. Pull it together on one page you can copy and take to your team.

It works for pricing, and for any big call that rests on beliefs nobody has checked: a reorg, a new market, a platform rewrite. For a worked example, read Hypothesis-Driven Pricing.

Build your hypothesis